When it finally corrects, we could see more than a 30% drop from the top...
See how insignificant the 2007 top appears from here!
Y2K top compared to current highs...
Loong recovery time
Sunday, September 27, 2020
Wednesday, September 16, 2020
September 2020 charts
Markets seemed to be at extreme levels as of the end of August, based on a
number of metrics, but particularly the RSI, which had previously risen above
the 70ish level only one time in June, since the March bottom. Of course we also
saw those high RSI levels in Jan 2020 (coincidentally just before the Covid
disaster).
Time will tell, but it could be that the post Labor Day rally is the new 'top'
in the markets for now. This happened right afer the stock splits of AAPL & TSLA
on Sep 1st. On Sep 3rd we saw the first big market drop.
If this is in fact the start of a bigger drop, here are some charts of a few popular stocks that have
seen big rallies in recent times, and some potential target levels. Target
levels can be determined a number of ways, including the 50MA (or other moving
average of your choice), and prior breakout/support levels. FAANGs Banks Others
Sunday, May 17, 2020
Valuations in the Covid era
A look at PEG ratios...
Not necessarily a good price indicator, but it offers you some comparisons.
DIS for example seems way overpriced based on this metric & the current economic growth situation.
In general, a PEG under 2 would be considered reasonable, based on growth projections.
*(data below is only as accurate as what is shown on the site referenced)
Followup...
Shortly after this was posted, we saw the Jun 2020 top.
Which was subsequently taken out however, as the market went even higher 6 weeks later.
Nothing on this site should be considered as financial advice.
Information is provided for education purposes only.
Saturday, March 21, 2020
Corona Markets -week 2
Foreign markets have now pulled back to the Christmas 2018 lows...
Japan
DAXUS markets...
We 'could' see a similar pullback over time...
On the bright side, maybe the gov't fiscal stimulus turns things around
S&P
DOW
Small Caps
-almost there
Financials
Energy
AMZN -holding up
The Techs have held up pretty well
SHOP -very strong
BA
F Ford
We could see companies like this one go down...
AAL -also in bad shape
...and others
Corona Markets
Foreign markets have pulled back to the highs of last July & September...
US markets...
We 'could' see a similar pullback over time...
The Corona thing was just a 'catalyst' for very extended markets.
So the pullback, if we get it, is really just a reset to more normal levels.
With any luck, we don't get there, and we turn around, leaving that green July line behind :)
Update -Looks like we could revisit our old friends around 3025ish
The DOW & Russell 2000 are already there (July highs)...
Sunday, January 19, 2020
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