Sunday, January 19, 2020

Utilities beating SPX & AMZN!




Utilities outperforming an already extended S&P 500

Fed Repo 2019/2020

Since the Fed started the overnight repo operation in early October, the market has rallied nonstop. Hope they dont stop anytime soon...









Sunday, September 22, 2019

Broken Wing Butterfly Example -AMZN

This is a bullish trade.

A BWB structured like this (OTM, for a credit) is somewhat similar to an OTM Credit spread, except that: if the stock starts to move down, it actually makes money (up to a point), with max profit actually at a lower strike (short Put strike) than the current price -one could argue its a Bearish trade then.  Whatever, as long as you make money!

Buy 1, sell 2, buy 1 further away and wider.

If the stock rallies, you just keep the credit (like a credit spread).

If the stock goes past the further OTM long strike, it starts to lose money. Of course you might be closing the whole position for a profit once it gets to the 'short strike, so you'd be long gone (unless it does a big gap).

Max risk is the: wide spread - narrow spread (20-10) -Credit (2.14), so 7.86


This is a solid gold strategy, if one takes the time to understand it!

NFLX -Demo Bearish 'broken wing butterfly (BWB)'


Current P&L 09/25



P&L 09/22



09/22  P&L chart
Will close this position soon, with almost $1000 profit (if it keeps on the right track).
This was done for a Debit, so if it went the wrong way, it would be losing.




Price chart -was clearly in a downtrend




Here is another BWB that was established at the same time, but with shorter duration..
It ran out of time, but was a small winner anyway -different structure too (was done for a Credit).
All strikes expired out of the money.



Monday, June 10, 2019

Support & Resistance

Sample charts...

INTC -bottomed out and reversed at a support level




AMZN -reversed right near a support level. Watch for potential resistance at the upper level now...
Maybe even at one of the other levels, before the one drawn like 1900ish...




TSLA -reversed at a support level, but on a much longer time frame



SPY -failed rally today


Sunday, May 26, 2019

Market update -Oct 2018 high


The extended SPX market rally (live chart) is broken until it takes out the 2018 Sep/Oct double top/all time high, and holds...

It's been struggling to get past that area 3 times already, since Jan 2018