Market update -levels

The DOW, S&P, and NAS100 all rallied up from the Dec low, back to the Sep/October high, and they are now pulling back a bit from that level.

The Russell2000 (small-caps) and the NYSE never made it back to the Sep/Oct top (chart below).
The NYSE index is a good gauge of overall market sentiment, representing roughly 2600 stocks traded on the exchange.

Essentially, since Jan 2018 (more than 15 months), the market has not really moved any higher...
We are in a consolidation period from the massive 10 year rally.







The FAANNGs, the prior market leaders, are struggling to get back to the Oct top, even tho the NAS100 already got there..




The market could go either way of course, but:
-the levels to watch on the UP-side would be the Oct (and Jan 2018) highs -some have already gotten there e.g. AXP, CSCO, DIS, MCD, PG, TRV, V, PYPL, SBUX...

-the levels to watch on the DOWN-side would be the intermediate lows seen in Nov, then the Christmas lows (NVDA is almost there already, as is INTC, and others). MMM WBA & DE, for example, already surpassed the Dec lows...

Stock Market update -Feb 17th

This week we rallied... We are now approaching the 2800 level for the SPX, and will probably get there before taking a break. We've had a HUGE rally from the Christmas Eve bottom, so it wouldn't hurt to start taking some profits this week...

Bonds holding up (low rates), Gold, Oil moving up.

Continuing concerns:  
Still keeping an eye on DB, China, Europe

NVDA popped a bit on earnings, after being beaten down for a quite a while

Over $21 Trillion in debt! See Debt Clock on the left, or here...

S&P 500 performance chart, 9 months -(Link)

New all time highs:   ABT, AFL, AMT, ADI, BA, DG, FOXA, LLY, UNP, XLNX, WM, and more

All time lows:   --

Options watch:   S&P 500 Implied Volatility -still dropping!  (CBOE VIX)

Link to high IV stocks   
High Options volume:   

	ETFs	SPY, IWM, QQQ, GLD, GDX, USO, XOP, VXX, XLF, XLE, FXI, EEM EWZ,
	Stocks	AAPL, AMD, BAC, BABA, FB, MU, NFLX, NVDA, TSLA

Next week:   Fed minutes

Earnings:    AAP, BIDU, DPZ, CVS,  WMT

This week's charts:

$NYA -NYSE Composite (link)  

 (IWM)   Small-caps

Links...

S&P 500 - big rally from the bottom still going! 

10yr Interest Rates  -steady/around 3%...

Labor Force Participation Rate (10 year chart) 

Fear & Greed Index

ETFs - Ranked by YTD Percent Change
S&P 500 Sector performance
$NYA -how much further up?

Commodities/Futures (charts):  

Crude Oil was down, closing near 55.79 - rallying above $50

Gold was down a bit, closing near 1325 -holding above $1300

The 30 year Bond was flat, closing near 146.62

The US Dollar  was up, closing near 96.74

News:

Worst retail sales drop in 9 years is 'every bit as bad as it looks'

Payless ShoeSource closing all 2,100 U.S. stores, starting liquidation sales Sunday

These stocks are very extended...

Follow-up (Dec 2018)... that was pretty much the top!

IQ -overbought...

Followup -that turned out to be the top!

Some popular stocks now at support levels

Support & Resistance

Links:

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:support_and_resistance

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/technical/061801.asp

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Support_and_resistance

Current examples:

Meetup -Debit Spreads make sense too!

Here is an example of a 1 week bullish Debit Spread trade on IWM...

It was actually closed at around $2.25 for a nice profit, but as you can see it kept going all the way to almost full value by the end of the week.

At the Meetup we'll discuss the guideline parameters for entering & exiting the trade -which strikes, which Expiration, Implied Volatility, etc.

Opening price on Monday afternoon $1.90

On Friday it closed at around $288